Priscilla takes silver. photo by David J Phillip/Associated Press

It is my opinion contrary to other observers, that our Canadian team at the recent World Championships in Berlin exceeded their predicted performances using an evidence based method. Anyone who has competed or coached at the Olympic or World Championships recognizes that peripherally involved members of the media are asked to report on sports of which they have limited experience or knowledge. This is not the case in this situation. Paul Gains, who has extensive background in the sport of track and field, has written for CBC Sports with headlines “Disappointing World Track Championships for Canada”. He focuses on predictions attributed to Athletics Canada that 2 medals would be won by our Canadian athletes. I find it difficult to support those predictions. I find no statistical evidence basis to support that opinion. If there is disappointment on my part it is not directed to our athletes. Could Athletics Canada have set unrealistic targets? Was the bar set too high to be fair to our athletes?  Did the media really understand the evidence based prediction? Careful analysis of the statistical data before and after the World Championships shows that our team performed as predicted. 1 medal, 3 top eight positions and 8 top sixteen spots. I agree that the reality of any sporting activity introduces surprises on all fronts: illness, injury, weather, luck of the draw, spills and thrills. These make true prediction impossible. But were our athletes meeting the mark? Yes, the team delivered exactly as expected. Should we be disappointed? No, we congratulate them!  That is my opinion!

Doug Clement- (not endorsed by BC Athletics or Athletics Canada)

Analysis

Medal expectations

27 events were entered by Canada in the World Championships.. Lopes-Schliep was the only athlete ranked to win a medal and that was achieved. Check this interview! Felicien, Armstrong and Reed were not ranked in a medal position. Priscilla improved the colour of her medal to silver!

Top 8 expectations

Canada was ranked to obtain 3 spots in the top 8. These were Priscilla Lopes-Schliep, Perdita Felicien and the men’s 4×100m. These athletes obtained final positions to equal that goal.

Top 16 expectations

Canada achieved 8 positions in the top 16 at the conclusion of the Championships. These were Lopes-Schliep, men’s 4×100m, Felicien, women’s 4×400m, Reed, Frizell, Theisen and Abdulai. Canada was scheduled prior to the competition to achieve 7 positions in the top 16. Only Armstrong moved down to 18^th while Theisen and Abdulai moved up from 17^th and 22^nd respectively.

Over all team expectations

78% of athletes in the 21 events, performed at or above their ranking, moving upwards an average of 14 spots each. 6 athletes performed below expectations slipping an average of 5 spots in ranking.

Using this +/- ranking system based on the difference in start list ranking and finishing ranking, the Canadian team was (+304-30 )= +274. If the score was zero, the team met expectations. If the score was a negative number our team would have failed to meet expectations. +274 means the team performed exceeding higher than anticipated!

External expectations

All-Athletics released today information on the Prediction vs. Reality in medal count prediction. 25 countries including US, Russia, Kenya and Ethiopia failed to reach their expected total medal prediction. 11 nations met their prediction. Canada was in this group along with Australia, Cuba and New Zealand. 13 Countries exceeded their medal expectations. These included Jamaica, Germany, Poland, Great Britain and China.

Track and Field News predicted no medals for Canada.

Results of Canadian Team in Berlin (compiled by Doug Clement)

Finish Name Event Home Coach Rank start list-finish= +/-

2 Priscilla Lopes-Schliep 100m Hurdles Whitby, ON Anthony McCleary (2-2)=0

5 4×100 Effah, Smith, Connaughton, Barnett + Palmer (7-5)=+2

8 Perdita Felicien 100m Hurdles Pickering, ON Gary Winckler (5-8)=-3

9 4×400m Akinsulie, Power, Martin, Muir + Hyacinthe & Nelson (14-9)=+5

10 Gary Reed 800m Victoria, BC Wynn Gmitroski (10-10)=0

10 Sultana Frizell Hammer Throw Perth, ON Anatoliy Bondarchuk (15-10)=+5

15 Brianne Theisen Heptathlon Humboldt, SK Todd Johnston (17-15)=+2

15 Ruky Abdulai Long Jump Coquitlam, BC Jarrold Jones (22-15)=+7

18 Kelsie Hendry Pole Vault Saskatoon, SK Rick & Susanne Petrucha (17-18)=-1

18 Dylan Armstrong Shot Put Kamloops, BC Anatoliy Bondarchuk (9-18)=-9

20 Nathan Brannen 1500m Cambridge, ON Ron Warhurst (33-20)=+13

20 Sam Effah 4×100m Calgary, AB Brenda Van Tighem (51-20)=+31

21 Gavin Smellie 4×100m Etobicoke, ON Erik Jenkins (17-21)=-4

22 Jared Connaughton 4×100m New Haven, PEI Monte Stratton (42-22)=+20

23 Jennifer Joyce Hammer Throw Kamloops, BC Anatoliy Bondarchuk (25-23)=+2
25 Esther Akinsulie 4×400m Ottawa, ON Hugh Conlin (24-25)=+1
25 Adrienne Power 4×400m Halifax, NS Peter Lord (26-25)=+1

25 Reid Coolsaet Marathon Hamilton, ON Dave Scott-Thomas (90-25)=+65
26 Angela Whyte 100m Hurdles Edmonton, AB Wayne Phipps (22-26)=-4
31 Robin Watson 3000m Steeplechase London, ON Dave Scott-Thomas (27-31)=-4
33 Dylan Wykes Marathon Kingston, ON Steve Boyd (80-33)=+47
33 Alice Falaiye Long Jump Mississauga, ON Marc Christie (25-33)=-8
35 Rachel Lavallée 20km Racewalk Peterborough, ON Stafford Whalen (51-35)=+17

36 Tara Quinn-Smith Marathon Toronto, ON Hugh Cameron (56-36)=+20
40 Bryan Barnett 4×100m Edmonton, AB Quin Sekulich (45-40)=+5
53 Andrew Smith Marathon Toronto, ON Hugh Cameron (85-53)=+32

56 Giitah Macharia Marathon Oakville, ON Steven Keating (87-56)=+31

Relay members not individual events
Kimberly Hyacinthe 4×400m Lachenaie, QC Daniel St-Hilaire
Jenna Martin 4×400m Bridgewater, NS Charles Scarrow
Carline Muir 4×400m Edmonton, AB Derek Evely
Amonn Nelson 4×400m Calgary, AB Brenda Van Tighem
Hank Palmer 4×100m Lasalle, QC Daniel St-Hilaire
Oluseyi Smith 4×100m Ottawa, ON Glenroy Gilbert

PREDICTION vs. REALITY

August 24, 2009

Based on the All-Athletics World Rankings dated 11.08.2009 the medal distribution by countries at the World Championships was predicted on 12 August. Check how it turned out in reality:

Acknowlegement to All-Athletics.

Tomorrow’s World Championships will feature several Canadians in the men’s marathon, women’s hammer throw and the 4×400m relay qualification. Today’s semi final in the 4×100m were successful as Hank Palmer, Seyi Smith, Jared Connaughton and Bryan Barnett recorded 38.60 to advance to the final on time. It appears that the US may face the same fate as the German quartet. The Germans missed their exchange on the back stretch and the US passed outside the zone.

Bryan Barnett

Canada will be ranked 8th in the final and will be challenged to meet the mark of 6th as they did in Beijing. ‘Batonitis’ struck today and may well strike again tomorrow. Hope that the “Maple Leaf” team have flawless passes!

Gary Reed

While the 4×100m had luck, it was missing for Gary Reed in the expected carnage of the 800m semifinals.  Gary was ranked 10th amongst the starters and that was his position as his progress ended. Unfortunately that does not allow him to advance to the finals as he had done in the past 2 global encounters.  He is not alone, as the overall favourite, Abubaker Kaki of the Sudan was denied a spot in the final as he was in Beijing. This spectacle of 8 evenly matched runners attempting to get to the first 2 qualifying spots is a very hazardous game.  Luck is what Gary needed but this was not be be. A great effort but not enough today!

Sultana Frizell will throw tomorrow she recorded 70.98m in qualifying for the hammer. Jennifer Joyce threw 67.07m to take 23rd spot.

Ruky Abdulai

Ruky Abdulai and Alice Falaiye jumped 6.45m and 6.09m respectively. Neither made the qualifying mark of 6.52m  Ruky ended up 15th in world. All jumpers were hampered by torrential rains which delayed much of the competition.

Scoring

Ruky( 22-15)=+7

Alice (25-33)=-8

Jennifer (25-23)=+2

Gary (10-10)=0

Accumulated Team Canada score (+59+1)=+60

Priscilla takes Berlin!

Priscilla Lopes-Schliep was sensational today as she captured the silver medal for Canada in the 100m hurdle final. She was the model of consistency as she recorded 12.56 > 12.60 > 12.54 in the heats, semis & final.  After her “surprise” bronze in the Beijing Olympics one year ago, Priscilla proved without a doubt she is just 3/100th from the gold.

Perdita Felicien

It was no surprise in this event that the barriers are really “hurdles” to completion of the 100m.  Unfortunately Perdita Felicien was to fall victim to the “hurdle” once again.  Just as in the Athen’s Olympics in 2004, the problem was hurdle number 1 for Perdita.  Maybe she attacked from  the blocks with such vigour that it brings her too close to the first barrier.  She had been so good in the first two races, 12.77> 12.58 > 15.53. She has proven to be a fighter in the past perhaps she will take some encouragement from this  year’s world champion, Brigitte Foster-Hylton of Jamaica.  She will turn 35 years of age  this November. She took the silver in the world’s Paris in 2003 and the bronze in Helsinki in to 2005.  After 12 years in the sport she won the gold today.

Scoring

100m hurdles

Lopes-Schliep (2-2)=0

Felicien (5-8)= -3

Whyte (22-26)= -6

Adrienne Power ran 23.38 (0.0) and failed to advance but mover up one spot

to score (26-25)= +1

Accumlative team score for Canada after day 5 is (+67-8)= +59

Priscilla Lopes-Schliep and Perdita Felicien moved forward to the semi finals tomorrow at the World Championships in Berlin.  Priscilla ran the fastest time of the day with 12.56 as Perdita recorded 12.77. Angela Whyte hit a hurdle near the end of the race and did 13.27 ending her progression.

Sam Effah

Our 200m runners were eliminated in the 2nd round after all 3 advance in the first round.  Jared Connaughton was second with  2.60 in the second round but was dq’d for a line infraction.  Most unfortunate indeed! Sam Effah ran 20.80 and 20.97 in the 2 rounds, while Gavin Smellie ran 20.71 and 21.27.

Score for the 200m. Sam (51-20)= +31, Gavin (17-21)= -4, Jared (42-22) +20 Total the 3 athletes +46

Accumulated Canadian team score (+21+46)=+67

Brianne Theisen

Brianne Theisen of Saskatchewan performed well in the heptathlon. This 20 year old’s shot put was the main factor keeping her from beating her multi event PB.  She scored 5949 points for 15th position gaining a +2 as she was ranked 17th in the event.  Brianne won the NCAA championships for the University of Oregon this spring with 6087 points. Canada’s team score(-5 +2)= -3

Kelsie Hendry

Kelsie Hendry vaulted 4.40m in the qualifying round and place 17th in the competition one place below her initial spot of 17th for a score of -1. Team score (-3-1)= -4.

Rob Watson

Rob Watson slipped from 27th position to 31st with his 8:44.73  in the qualifying 3000m steeplechase heat. His score -4 with Canada’s score (-4-4) = -8.

Rachael Lavallee place 35th in the 20k walk with her 1H 44:45 mark moving from 51st pre event rank to 35th for a +16. The accumulative team score (-8+16)= +8.

So Canada finished day two of the World Championships in  positive territory with a +8

Dylan Armstrong

Canada has tough first session at qualification for advancement in Berlin this morning. None of our entries in this start of the big show wee able to advance.  Most note able was Dylan Armstrong’s 19.86m effort in the shot put.  He was ranked 9th out of the field of 35  entries with his seasonal best of 20.92 but failed to make the top 12, landing in 18th spot. Dylan will not be happy with this result. Using our +/- system his score is -9.

Bryan Barnett

Bryan Barnett was ranked prior to the 12 qualification first rounds, 45th out of the 91 entries with his seasonal best of 10.27 mark.  He ended up the Usain Bolt’s heat and recorded 10.42 with a headwind of -0.5m/sec. He did not advance but ranked 40th, so he moved up with a score of +5.  This gives our team  an accumulative score of -9+5= -4.

Esther Akinsulie 400m

Esther Akinsulie faced a similar battle in the 400m where she was ranked 24th in the field. Her 53.21 mark moved her down one spot to 25th position.  Her score -1. Canada -4-1= -5.  As they say, it is now how we start but how we finish.

Let’s go team and move up to positive number!

Doug Clement